We introduce DataTales, a novel benchmark designed to assess the proficiency of language models in data narration, a task crucial for transforming complex tabular data into accessible narratives. Existing benchmarks often fall short in capturing the requisite analytical complexity for practical applications. DataTales addresses this gap by offering 4.9k financial reports paired with corresponding market data, showcasing the demand for models to create clear narratives and analyze large datasets while understanding specialized terminology in the field. Our findings highlights the significant challenge that language models face in achieving the necessary precision and analytical depth for proficient data narration, suggesting promising avenues for future model development and evaluation methodologies.

In this paper, we demonstrate that non-generative, small-sized models such as FinBERT and FinDRoBERTa, when fine-tuned, can outperform GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models in zero-shot learning settings in sentiment analysis for financial news. These fine-tuned models show comparable results to GPT-3.5 when it is fine-tuned on the task of determining market sentiment from daily financial news summaries sourced from Bloomberg. To fine-tune and compare these models, we created a novel database, which assigns a market score to each piece of news without human interpretation bias, systematically identifying the mentioned companies and analyzing whether their stocks have gone up, down, or remained neutral. Furthermore, the paper shows that the assumptions of Condorcet's Jury Theorem do not hold suggesting that fine-tuned small models are not independent of the fine-tuned GPT models, indicating behavioural similarities. Lastly, the resulted fine-tuned models are made publicly available on HuggingFace, providing a resource for further research in financial sentiment analysis and text classification.

Recent advancements in Natural Language Processing (NLP) with Large Language Models (LLMs) have made the sentiment analysis of financial news by machines a practical achievement and no longer just a dream. More precisely, Large Language Models (LLMs) have marked a major step forward in processing large contexts, exhibiting human-level performance on various professional and academic benchmarks, although they still have limitations such as reliability issues and limited context windows [OpenAI, 2023]. Their ability to process more context has shown particularly interesting applications in many business areas [George and George, 2023]. Hence exploring the potential to extract either weak or strong signals from financial news to enhance a risk-on risk-off investment strategy becomes highly pertinent. Indeed, extracting sentiment from financial news is not new [Tetlock, 2007, Schumaker and Chen, 2009], and finance has a longstanding tradition of exploiting textual data [Kearney and Liu, 2014].

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

Transfer learning is an emerging and popular paradigm for utilizing existing knowledge from previous learning tasks to improve the performance of new ones. In this paper, we propose a novel concept of transfer risk and and analyze its properties to evaluate transferability of transfer learning. We apply transfer learning techniques and this concept of transfer risk to stock return prediction and portfolio optimization problems. Numerical results demonstrate a strong correlation between transfer risk and overall transfer learning performance, where transfer risk provides a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, including cross-continent, cross-sector, and cross-frequency transfer for portfolio optimization.

In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a strong correlation between the transfer risk and the overall performance of transfer learning methods is established, underscoring the significance of transfer risk as a viable indicator of "transferability"; 2. transfer risk is shown to provide a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the transfer learning approach; 3. additionally, the numerical experiments offer valuable new insights for portfolio management across these different settings.

The inference of causal structures from observed data plays a key role in unveiling the underlying dynamics of the system. This paper exposes a novel method, named Multiscale-Causal Structure Learning (MS-CASTLE), to estimate the structure of linear causal relationships occurring at different time scales. Differently from existing approaches, MS-CASTLE takes explicitly into account instantaneous and lagged inter-relations between multiple time series, represented at different scales, hinging on stationary wavelet transform and non-convex optimization. MS-CASTLE incorporates, as a special case, a single-scale version named SS-CASTLE, which compares favorably in terms of computational efficiency, performance and robustness with respect to the state of the art onto synthetic data. We used MS-CASTLE to study the multiscale causal structure of the risk of 15 global equity markets, during covid-19 pandemic, illustrating how MS-CASTLE can extract meaningful information thanks to its multiscale analysis, outperforming SS-CASTLE. We found that the most persistent and strongest interactions occur at mid-term time resolutions. Moreover, we identified the stock markets that drive the risk during the considered period: Brazil, Canada and Italy. The proposed approach can be exploited by financial investors who, depending to their investment horizon, can manage the risk within equity portfolios from a causal perspective.

In this work we introduce QuantNet: an architecture that is capable of transferring knowledge over systematic trading strategies in several financial markets. By having a system that is able to leverage and share knowledge across them, our aim is two-fold: to circumvent the so-called Backtest Overfitting problem; and to generate higher risk-adjusted returns and fewer drawdowns. To do that, QuantNet exploits a form of modelling called Transfer Learning, where two layers are market-specific and another one is market-agnostic. This ensures that the transfer occurs across trading strategies, with the market-agnostic layer acting as a vehicle to share knowledge, cross-influence each strategy parameters, and ultimately the trading signal produced. In order to evaluate QuantNet, we compared its performance in relation to the option of not performing transfer learning, that is, using market-specific old-fashioned machine learning. In summary, our findings suggest that QuantNet performs better than non transfer-based trading strategies, improving Sharpe ratio in 15% and Calmar ratio in 41% across 3103 assets in 58 equity markets across the world. Code coming soon.

As hedge funds rush to enter the cryptocurrency space, the landscape for retail cryptocurrency investors is fundamentally changing before our very eyes. Guy breaks down the implications of this fundamental shift and we discuss how the community can prepare for the rise of AI in crypto trading. To understand the extent in which AI is taking over hedge funds, we need only to look at the statistics. AI is set to replace 90,000 asset management jobs and 45 thousand sales and trading jobs by 2025. Famous hedge funds that are already employing AI in their trading are Renaissance Technologies, Two Sigma, and Bridgewater Associates.

InnoTREE, a Chinese Internet-based equity financing and investment service provider, said it has produced the world's first artificial intelligence (AI) robot for investment purposes, the China Business Times reported on Tuesday. Teng Fang, co-founder of InnoTREE, said an AI investment robot can process the equivalent of 40 hours of work by a senior analyst in one hour. "In terms of its cognitive abilities, the AI investment robot is capable of replacing an investment manager with three to four years of work experience." The AI investment robot can track and analyze all aspects of dynamic business, and record companies' growth process on a daily basis, which should be done by at least ten thousand analysts, the report said. In addition, the AI investment robot can analyze and model statistics data obtained from the comprehensive evaluation of projects, and list companies with the most potential through model operation, it was added.